It's no surprise that there has been some disruption within the automotive industry this year. Many forecasted the rise in connected cars and autonomous vehicles, and both of these sectors continue to develop. A recent report by McKinsey
sheds some light on other changes that are taking place within the automotive ecosystem.
McKinsey defines four specific trends: autonomous driving, shared mobility, connectivity, and electrification. They're all accelerating, and are mutually reinforcing. Some exciting data points around each of these trends include:
- 80% of auto manufacturers have defined some type of plan for highly autonomous vehicle production before 2025
- USD$32 billion (AUD$40.5 billion) has been invested in ride-sharing start-ups
- While only 12% of cars have embedded connectivity solutions, a majority of OEMs are installing self-contained systems that provide diverse in-vehicle services in all of their premium vehicles
- Electric cars continue to grow in popularity with the industry aspiring to equip 50 percent of all new models in 2021 equipped with xEV drivetrains
Understanding how disruptive each of these trends will be is critical. The forecast presented by McKinsey for how it might impact revenue is wide, with 40% variation across their six market scenarios. In their base case, by 2030, about 20 percent of value generated from traditional vehicle sales may be shifted toward new technologies, yet more than 60 percent of revenue from these disruptive business models could still be carried by traditional elements like the shared vehicle itself or fleet operations.
In our market, this will impact our customers' choice of fleet composition, vehicle residual values for cars with and without these features and much more. For our customers, we provide forecasting services for the impact of these variables and their immediate as well as long-term impacts on their vehicle valuations, with forecasts tailored to their business use case and region of operation. Learn more about our Valuations team
and how we make forecasts like these actionable.