Quarterly Automotive Report
Issue 11 | Q3 2026
Key insights
Used vehicle market steadies as seasonality normalises
Buyer activity strengthened through September, with more traditional seasonal patterns returning after the sharper-than-usual winter slowdown.
Novated leasing becomes a used vehicle supply story
Growing numbers of ex-novated vehicles are reaching the secondary market, creating a new pipeline of relatively young, well-maintained used stock.
Regional EV demand gathers pace
Regional buyers and dealers are taking a growing share of used EV sales, broadening demand beyond Australia’s major cities.
Truck demand holds firm despite sector headwinds
Fuel and finance costs and competitive pressures continue to challenge transport operators, but well-specified used trucks continue to attract buyers and retain value.
Battery value reshapes ageing EV salvage
Early data suggests ageing EVs may follow a different salvage value curve to ICE vehicles, with battery value potentially supporting a more durable floor.
Quarterly Motor Vehicles Summary
Used vehicle market steadies as spring recovery begins
After a sharper-than-usual winter slowdown, Australia’s used vehicle market began to stabilise through September, with improved bidding activity, clearance rates, and buyer sentiment pointing to the return of more traditional spring trading conditions.
The Datium Insights Used Car Index fell from 128 per cent earlier in the year to a low of 113 per cent in August before recovering to 114 per cent in September. The decline followed the fuel-price shock earlier in 2026, which weighed particularly heavily on petrol and diesel vehicle values and brought the usual winter slowdown forward.
Chris Shaw, General Manager, Motor Vehicles, says the September improvement is an encouraging sign that the market is beginning to reset.
“The first half of the year was heavily influenced by fuel prices and broader uncertainty, which changed buying behaviour very quickly. What we’re seeing now is a market starting to settle, with buyers becoming more active again as we move into the traditional spring period.”
Fuel types begin to stabilise
The effect of the fuel-price spike remained visible across Q3, although the gap between powertrains narrowed as the quarter progressed.
Used EV demand rose sharply earlier in the year, pushing the Datium Insights Used EV Index from 104 per cent in February to a peak of 122 per cent in May. By September, the index had returned to 107 per cent following the exceptional demand seen during the earlier fuel-price shock.
Petrol and diesel values also began to stabilise in September, closing at 103 per cent and 106 per cent respectively. Hybrid vehicles remained the most resilient fuel type, declining by only 7 per cent from February and remaining comparatively stable through Q3.
Shaw says the market is increasingly moving beyond the extreme swings seen earlier in the year.
“Fuel costs remain important, but buyers are again looking at the complete ownership equation rather than reacting to one factor. That is helping bring more balance back into pricing across fuel types.”
Vehicle segments show different rates of recovery
Performance also varied considerably across the major vehicle categories.
Passenger vehicles were the strongest of the three principal segments through Q3, increasing 3 per cent across the quarter to close at 127 per cent. Light commercial vehicle values were broadly stable through Q3, closing 103 per cent, in line with June's result.
SUVs experienced the greatest correction during 2026. After peaking at 125 per cent in January, the segment closed September at 110 per cent, remaining around 9 points below September 2025.
Traditional seasonality continues to normalise
The timing of the September recovery is consistent with the seasonal pattern Pickles has been expecting to re-emerge.
QAR10 noted that the fuel-price shock had effectively brought the traditional winter slowdown forward, while stronger conditions were expected to return during spring. Historical Datium Insights data shows vehicle values typically strengthening toward the end of the first quarter, easing through winter, and beginning to recover from September and October.
Seasonality began to re-emerge in 2024 and remained evident through 2025, following several years in which COVID-era disruption distorted traditional market patterns.
“We’re continuing to see more recognisable seasonal patterns in the market,” says Shaw. “That gives both buyers and sellers a better basis for making decisions around replacement timing, purchasing, and remarketing.”
Used volumes recover as fleet supply remains constrained
New and used vehicle activity also strengthened through Q3.
Private buyers continued to account for the majority of new vehicle sales, representing 54 per cent in Q3 2026, up from 51 per cent in Q3 2025. Corporate, government, and rental activity softened marginally, while overall new vehicle sales were up two per cent year-to-date compared with the same period in 2025.
Pickles used vehicle sales increased 11 per cent compared with Q2, although volumes remained slightly below the same period last year. Feedback from our fleet management partners suggests the volume of vehicles in month-by-month inertia rental continues to grow, with a backlog of vehicles to be replaced in the coming months.
Finance repossessions also continued to grow, increasing 17 per cent year-on-year.
Used EV volumes reach record high
The used EV market continued to expand despite values normalising from their May peak.
The record quarter comes as Australia’s EV market reaches a new stage of maturity, a shift reflected in the Electric Vehicle Council’s newly released 2026 State of EVs report[i].
Pickles sold more than 1,580 used EVs in the 12 months to September, compared with approximately 740 in the previous 12-month period. More than 440 were sold during Q3 alone, making it Pickles’ largest used EV quarter on record. September was also the largest single month on record, with over 200 used EVs sold, surpassing the previous high recorded in March 2026.
March’s previous record coincided with the fuel-price spike, when used EV clearance rates reached 100 per cent.
The vehicles entering the market are also gradually becoming older and more travelled. Average age increased to approximately 3.1 years, while average kilometres remained around 44,000 kilometres, approximately 50 per cent above the level recorded two years ago.
Battery transparency is also becoming increasingly important as the secondary market matures. Data contributed by Pickles to the Electric Vehicle Council’s 2026 State of EVs report shows that the more than 2,500 battery electric vehicles tested by Pickles have an average Battery State of Health of 96 per cent. Vehicles more than five years old averaged 93 per cent, while those that had travelled more than 120,000 kilometres averaged 89 per cent.
The findings address a clear consumer concern. Separate NRMA research found 82 per cent of consumers want a way to test battery health when buying a used EV[ii].
[i] https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/state-of-evs-2026/
[ii] https://www.nrma.com.au/car-insurance/ev-report-changing-gears
Outlook for Q4
Pickles expects the improvement in demand and buyer activity seen in September to continue through October and November, provided broader economic conditions remain relatively stable.
Used vehicle activity is expected to strengthen into early December before the traditional Christmas slowdown, with demand rebuilding again from mid-January. As more recognisable seasonal patterns return to the market, buyers and sellers should also have greater clarity around the timing of purchasing, replacement, and remarketing decisions.
EV activity is also expected to remain strong as Australia’s electric vehicle fleet continues to grow, increasing the future pipeline of vehicles entering the secondary market. At the same time, persistent cost-of-living pressures are likely to keep affordability, running costs, and overall value central to buyer decisions.
“The quarter ended in a stronger position than it began,” says Shaw. “There are still pressures across the market, but buyers are returning, seasonal patterns are becoming clearer, and that gives us confidence heading into the final quarter of the year.”
The novated lease boom is becoming a used vehicle supply story
For the past several years, much of the conversation around novated leasing has focused on new vehicle demand. The next phase will be about what happens when those vehicles reach the end of their lease.
Pickles is already seeing that shift. Ex-novated vehicle volumes increased sharply during 2026, with Q2 volumes 118 per cent higher than Q1 and Q3 volumes 157 per cent higher than Q1.
That emerging supply has some particularly attractive characteristics. Ex-novated vehicles are often three to five years old, one-owner vehicles, with strong representation from late-model SUVs, EVs, and well-optioned light commercial vehicles – categories with established demand among both dealers and end-user buyers.
The timing is significant for EVs. The Federal Government's electric car Fringe Benefits Tax (FBT) exemption commenced from 1 July 2022, meaning the earliest waves of eligible battery EVs acquired through novated arrangements are increasingly reaching typical replacement periods. Eligible battery EVs remain covered by the concession, although the exemption for new plug-in hybrid arrangements ended from 1 April 2025.
Chris Shaw, General Manager, Motor Vehicles, says that changes the conversation for novated providers.
“Over the past few years the focus has understandably been on getting drivers into their next vehicle. What we're now seeing is much greater attention being paid to the other side of the transaction – how you manage the existing vehicle and maximise the end-of-lease outcome,” says Shaw.
Pickles anticipated this shift in 2025 with the launch of its “Sell with us” technology. Established to help providers increase customer retention, the platform evaluates vehicles approaching lease-end, enables providers to proactively give customers an estimate, allows drivers to complete a digital self-inspection using their phone, and can generate a direct purchase price or consignment estimate.
FleetPartners is among the novated lease providers adopting the solution, with the partnership designed to make the end-of-lease process simpler for drivers while providing a more streamlined pathway to remarket their existing vehicle.
Andrew Miller, Director of Sales at FleetPartners, says: “As more customers reach the end of their novated lease, we want to make the transition to their next vehicle as seamless as possible. Working with Pickles gives customers a simple way to understand the options for their existing vehicle, while we focus on replacing their vehicle or supporting them through the next stage of their lease.”
For providers, the objective is to remove friction from the end-of-lease process while keeping consultants focused on the driver’s next vehicle.
“The volumes coming through now are really just the beginning,” says Shaw. “As more novated vehicles mature, particularly EVs acquired following the introduction of the FBT exemption, having an effective remarketing strategy will become increasingly important.”
For the used market, that means a growing pipeline of relatively young, well-maintained vehicles – and potentially one of the most significant new sources of used EV supply over the coming years.
Regional buyers now account for almost one in three Pickles used EV sales
Australia’s used EV market is pushing further beyond the capital cities, with regional buyers accounting for 32 per cent of Pickles used EV purchases in FY26, up from 27 per cent a year earlier.
Dealer activity has shifted even faster. Regional dealers purchased 26 per cent of Pickles’ used EVs in FY26, compared with 17 per cent in FY25 – a nine percentage point increase in just 12 months.
Importantly, the increase is not simply a change in the geographic mix of buyers. The number of used EVs purchased by regional buyers increased from ~120 in FY25 to ~280 in FY26, representing growth of 130 per cent. Bidding also increased by 124 per cent from FY25 to FY26.
The east coast led the growth. Regional buyer participation increased across Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland, with Queensland recording the largest movement. Almost half of Pickles used EV sales in Queensland went to regional buyers in FY26, compared with less than one-fifth the year before. Smaller volumes in Western Australia, South Australia, and Tasmania mean year-on-year movements in those markets are more pronounced.
Brendon Green, General Manager, Automotive Solutions, says the increase in dealer participation is an important indicator of growing regional demand.
“Regional private buyers buying used EVs is one thing, but dealers increasing their participation tells us they’re becoming more confident they can put these vehicles on their yards and find a local buyer,” says Green.
“That gives us a much stronger indication that the secondary EV market is developing beyond the major cities.”
The vehicles regional buyers are choosing provide another indication of how the market is developing. Tesla Model 3 was the most purchased used EV among regional buyers in FY26, followed by Tesla Model Y and Hyundai Kona. The same three models led metropolitan purchases, albeit in a different order. Within the regional mix, a substantial proportion of buyers also opted for longer-range variants, although they did not represent the majority.
Pickles is seeing growing confidence in two areas that have historically influenced regional EV consideration: access to charging and driving range. The Federal Government and NRMA are also developing a national charging network of up to 77 stations along key highway routes, targeting charging blackspots and prioritising regional and remote communities.
A broader geographic spread of demand also gives sellers access to a deeper buyer pool.
“For residual values, the depth of the buyer pool matters,” says Green. “If more dealers and end-user buyers are prepared to compete for used EVs, regardless of postcode, that is a positive development for the secondary market.”
Metropolitan buyers still account for the majority of Pickles used EV sales, but regional participation is growing. Used EV demand is no longer simply a metropolitan story.
Pickles truck sales climb 20 per cent despite sector headwinds
Australia’s transport sector continues to face a challenging operating environment, with fuel and finance costs and competitive pressures among the headwinds facing operators. Despite those conditions, demand for used trucks remains resilient.
Against that backdrop, Pickles’ gross truck sales increased from $251 million in FY24 to $265 million in FY25 before reaching $301 million in FY26 – growth of 20 per cent in two years.
The increase in gross sales does not mean the value of every truck is rising; the volume and mix of assets entering the market also influence the result. It does, however, show that buyers remain active when the right equipment is brought to market under the right conditions.
Helen Sklavos, Executive Manager – Finance & Advisory, says financial distress in an operating business does not automatically translate into distressed asset values.
“A distressed business and a distressed asset are two very different things,” says Sklavos. “An operator may be struggling with debt, contracts or rising input costs, but a well-specified prime mover can still have strong value to another transport business.”
That distinction becomes critical when assets need to be realised quickly.
In one transport insolvency handled by Pickles in early 2026, around 80 trucks and trailers were spread across several sites. The assets were moved to centralised locations, maintenance records were made available to prospective buyers, and relatively minor issues were addressed selectively where it made commercial sense.
The objective was not to refurbish the fleet, but to remove uncertainty that could suppress bidding.
“Buyers price uncertainty into every bid,” says Sklavos. “Clear information, accessible assets, and addressing relatively minor issues where it makes commercial sense can give buyers greater confidence to compete.”
The entire fleet ultimately sold for more than $4.3M, achieving four per cent above expectations.
For lenders and insolvency practitioners, recoverable value can be won or lost before bidding begins. Asset location, maintenance information, selective preparation, sale structure, and access to the right buyer pool all shape how much value ultimately comes back to stakeholders.
Battery value could put a floor under ageing EV salvage prices
Early Pickles data suggests electric vehicles may follow a different salvage value curve as they age, with older EVs achieving stronger sale outcomes than comparable ICE vehicles across both repairable write-offs (RWOs) and statutory write-offs (SWOs).
An analysis of salvage vehicles sold since January 2025, aged between seven and 12 years and with pre-accident values of up to $40,000, found SWO EVs achieved sale results 16 per cent higher than comparable ICE vehicles. Among RWOs, the difference was considerably greater, with EVs achieving 71 per cent more than their ICE counterparts.
One factor that may help explain the difference is the value sitting within the battery. Pickles estimates that the battery in an ageing EV can represent approximately $6,000 to $10,000 or more in value, depending on the vehicle and battery, before the value of other recoverable parts is considered.
Brendon Green, General Manager – Automotive Solutions, says that creates a different value proposition as EVs age.
“An older ICE vehicle can reach a point where its salvage value is predominantly determined by the parts somebody can recover from it,” says Green.
“With an EV, there is another substantial source of value in the vehicle – the battery. As the EV carpark gets older, we expect that to play a bigger role in what buyers are prepared to pay.”
There are also early signs of a specialist buyer market developing around salvage EVs. EV parts and repair groups have referenced Pickles listings for vehicles including Tesla, BYD, and Zeekr models, as well as electric commercial vehicles.
The trend is still emerging. Battery condition, vehicle type, damage, parts demand, and buyer depth will continue to influence individual sale outcomes, while the available dataset for older EVs remains much smaller than for ICE vehicles.
“For owners and managers of salvage assets, the important point is that EV salvage may not follow the same value curve we have historically seen with ICE vehicles,” says Green. “As Australia’s EV carpark matures, battery value could create a more durable floor beneath older vehicles.”
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